What should the future development agenda look like?

The world is currently faced with multiple challenges: intensifying climate change, geopolitical tensions, financial pressure, and shattered trust in international institutions and agendas. However, sustainable development remains a central objective of multilateralism, as reaffirmed most recently in the Pact for the Future, adopted in 2024. (1) With its deadline approaching in 2030, the Sustainable Development Agenda needs accelerated efforts for implementation and forward-looking thinking for what comes next. Even though the formal negotiations will start at a high-level Summit in 2027, researchers and policymakers are already studying key achievements and shortcomings of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as emerging themes for the post-2030 agenda.

Achievements

The SDGs are recognized as «the most wide-ranging and ambitious plan» ever attempted by the United Nations. (2) Continuing the pace set by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which expired in 2015, the SDGs are universal in nature and are owned by both developing and developed countries. This is often seen as an accomplishment, when compared with the MDGs, which were crafted solely for developing countries.

The SDG Agenda is a comprehensive, indivisible and interlinked Agenda, balancing the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental, in an integrated manner. (3) As such, it is a shared blueprint for both the People and the Planet.  For example, tackling climate change (SDG13) is linked to reducing poverty (SDG 1) and promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization (SDG 8).

It is also a collectively owned, bottom-up framework, which was adopted by the 193 Member States of the UN General Assembly, compared to the MDGs, which were a «brainchild of Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his team». (4) It was based on proposals of national Governments, civil society and the General Assembly’s Open Working Group on SDGs.

It is therefore a nationally owned agenda, whereby each Government sets its own national targets, guided by the global level of aspirational targets and decides how these global targets will be translated into national planning processes, policies and strategies.

It is also an inclusive agenda, promising a better life for everyone, leaving no-one behind, in particular the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, thematically, there has been significant progress in specific areas, such as child mortality, access to energy, and the battle against certain diseases, including the HIV and malaria.

Shortcomings

In the latest 2025 Ministerial Declaration of the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) (5), Member States rightly pointed out that they «are running out of time » to achieve the SDGs.They also recognized that progress is «severely off track». According to the latest SDG Progress Report, only 35% of the targets, that could be assessed, display adequate progress. 17% show no progress at all and 18% of targets regressed below the 2015 baseline. (6)

Importantly, academia has signaled a disaffection in the central role of the SDG Agenda by some of the main geopolitical actors. There is a «steady fading of the SDGs as a meaningful reference» for Europe (7) and a complete rejection and denial of the Agenda altogether by the United States (8), who called it a «globalist endeavor». At the same time, all countries recommitted to the 2030 Agenda as part of the Summit and Pact for the Future in 2024.

Furthermore, the Agenda leaves a lot of space for national interpretation. The SDG Declaration itself provides that each Government will decide the targets for itself, «taking into account national circumstances» and «other relevant ongoing processes in the economic, social and environmental fields». (9) This means that the Governments have the « right to pick and choose » from the menu according to their particular situation. (10)

There is also an implementation challenge in practice, given the complexity of the SDGs. Indeed, there are, in total, 17 Goals, 169 targets and 251 progress indicators. This is compared to the 8 goals, 19 targets and 44 indicators of the MDGs.

Certain thematic areas, like digital technologies (including artificial intelligence) or financial governance are not sufficiently covered in the SDGs and should be better incorporated in the post-2030 development agenda. The «immense potential» of digital technologies has most recently been recognized in a stand-alone document, the Global Digital Compact, adopted at the 2024 Summit for the Future. (11) This is possibly setting the stage for a new goal in the future development agenda. With regard to financing, countries have repeatedly expressed their concern over the increasing estimated SDG financing gap and the «urgency of providing predictable, sustainable and sufficient» development finance from all sources. (12)

Another key recognized shortcoming around the SDGs is the quality of data provided by States in their reporting. Even though there has been a marked improvement in strengthening data systems for SDG monitoring, there remain significant disaggregation gaps and «blind spots». (13) For example, Goal 5 (Gender equality), Goal 11 (Sustainable cities and communities), Goal 13 (Climate action) and Goal 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions) continue to lag significantly, at below 30% of trend data coverage. (14)

What next?

In 2027, the United Nations will start a process to review progress and negotiate the Sustainable Development Agenda 2.0. Policymakers now have the opportunity to draw on research and analysis on the SDG implementation to inform the post-2030 Agenda.

Scientists advise delegates to analyze the possibility of introducing a Theory of Change methodology behind the next SDGs, which might lead to more measurable and impactful progress on implementation. (15)

In general, the European Centre for Development Policy Management, a leading European think tank, has proposed a few scenarios for the post-2030 agenda, taking into account the current global geopolitical situation. (16) The first scenario focuses on extending the timeline of existing SDGs to 2040 or 2050, with minor adjustments. The second scenario sees a fragmentation of the current SDGs and a reduced agenda around the goals where consensus exists. The third scenario aims at an ambitious new agenda that addresses limitations in financing and brings in new missing thematic issues. Finally, the fourth scenario (the most realistic one) is a hybrid model, where some SDGs are extended with amendments, others pursued regionally or thematically, and others yet gain more ambitious support for particular themes like digital or health.

Indeed, we must remain aware that negotiations at the upcoming High-level summit in 2027 and beyond will happen in a more volatile and politically complex environment than the 2030 Agenda in 2015. Therefore, it might be more advisable not to re-open agreed language on certain SDGs and to focus only on the ones where there has not been sufficient progress or that have not been addressed altogether. Ambassador David Donoghue, a key negotiator of the 2030 Agenda, has a similar outlook, foreseeing «a post-2030 Agenda on the same scale as the present one» (17), with most of the Goals staying as they currently are and with space for additions, rather than subtractions.

For the same reason, the proposal of establishing a stronger review mechanism with enforcement power, like a Commission on Sustainable Development instead of the High-level Political Forum (HLPF) on Sustainable Development, might face opposition from states on sovereignty and non-interference claims. An alternative suggestion might be to strengthen the existing HLPF into a state-driven review mechanism with actionable recommendations, on the basis of the model provided by the human rights-based Universal Periodic Review, which has proven a success story. This could be more politically acceptable to States, than an independent Commission. It would also mark a shift from voluntary reporting to universal reporting.

This also reminds us that the knowledge community (18) suggests a stronger focus on the implementation architecture, including financing, for more measurable progress on the ground. As Jeffrey Sachs put it «the issue of implementation is paramount », because the SDGs were achievable and technically within reach, but they are still not implemented. Four elements to keep in mind, as advised by the world-renowned economist, are: the cooperation with private actors, a stronger focus on planning, the importance of regional cooperation, and investment through the global financial architecture.

Therefore, we can remain hopeful that the post-2030 development agenda will build on all lessons learnt from the SDGs, creating space for a new blueprint focused on implementation and accountability, that leaves no-one behind. For creating a strong and actionable framework, the United Nations needs the support of all major powers and a genuine multilateral cooperation, which overcomes all current major crises.    

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(1) Pact for the Future, Global Digital Compact and Declaration on Future Generations, adopted September 2024, at https://docs.un.org/en/E/HLPF/2025/L.1, page 1

(2) Crossette Barbara, Can the SDGs live up to the Hype?, Future United Nations Development System Briefing no. 35, November 2015, page 1

(3) Political Declaration adopted at the High-level Political

Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF), under the

auspices of the General Assembly in September 2023, at https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/78/1 , page 2

(4) Crossette Barbara, Can the SDGs live up to the Hype?, Future United Nations Development System Briefing no. 35, November 2015, page 2

(5) Ministerial declaration of the high-level segment of the 2025

session of the Economic and Social Council and the 2025 high-level

political forum on sustainable development convened under the

auspices of the Council on the theme “Advancing sustainable,

inclusive, science- and evidence-based solutions for the 2030

Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable

Development Goals for leaving no one behind”, UN Economic and Social Council, 17 July 2025, at https://docs.un.org/en/E/HLPF/2025/L.1, page 2

(6) The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, United Nations,  https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2025.pdf, page 4

(7) Sheriff Andrew, Europe and the post-2030 Agenda: a call for action, 14 January 2026, ECDMP, at https://ecdpm.org/work/europe-and-post-2030-agenda-call-action

(8) United States Mission to the United Nations, Remarks at the UN meeting entitled 58th plenary meeting of the General Assembly, 4 March 2025, at https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-at-the-un-meeting-entitled-58th-plenary-meeting-of-the-general-assembly/

(9) UNGA resolution 70/1. Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, at https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/70/1, page 13

(10) Crossette Barbara, Ibidem

(11) Pact for the Future, Global Digital Compact and Declaration on Future Generations, Idem, page 37

(12) Political Declaration, Idem, page 5

(13) The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, United Nations,  https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2025.pdf, page 5

(14) The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Ibidem

(15) Allen Cameron et all, A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda, Science, vol 391, Issue 6782, pages 241-244 at https://www.science.org/eprint/K8XYV6IEY2MRTG9JHDKN/full

(16) Sheriff Andrew, Ibidem

(17) Sustainable Development Solutions Network, the Post-2030 Agenda, 1 April 2026, at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3gOhSqCn78

(18) Ibidem